So all the data has been compiled and analyzed. The Winter Garden market has been a tear last 5 years, out performing the other local markets and crushing the National Averages in every category. At some point things had to slow down. Seems this may be that time… 3% jump in average and median sale prices, 4% in average $/ft… from 2nd to 3rd quarter of 2018. On the 12 month level Winter Garden is CRUSHING it with Double Digit increases on average and media sale prices.

Lets keep in perspective that the median sale price for the entire ORLANDO METROPOLITAN AREA is currently $231,000 according to ORRA website. Winter Gardens this quarter was $343,500 ! Typically the lower your numbers the higher the percentage of increase , since it does not take as much to raise a percentage point… Orlando jumped 3% year to year in median sale price… … WINTER GARDEN JUMPED 10% with 100k more of basis $.

As any avid reader of the RTR Ramblings, you know Winter Garden is one of the most unique real estate markets in the country , it is actually the tale of 3 cities in one and 2 major high school districts. The Historic Downtown revitalization area, the region around the 429 expressway spurred on by the 2002-2007 building boom and now Horizons West, with massive home construction that this area has never seen. All 3 areas bring their own flare to this amazing area and why Winter Garden is one of the greatest places to live in the Country.

As stated, with amazing accuracy last quarter (almost scary even), the market jumped 3 %, Ron predicted 2-3% in the 3rd quarter… the bond market is the hottest it has been since 2010 and the FED just raised the rates at their last session in Sept. There is one more rate hike expected in their final meeting of the year. Right now interest rates have been jumping, they are now right at 5% (which RTR predicted in the 2nd quarter report ).

The summer buying season is over and inventory is at its lowest levels in recent years. What is different about Winter Garden is the historical level of new home choices for the buyer. What many do not understand is that the new home market is now on the MLS in greater volume than ever in its history. While the new home market has attracted hundreds of buyers away from the resale market, so many have yet to close.

Construction is behind schedule, permitting for Winter Garden has never been so overworked and builders fiscal calendar years end Oct thru Dec.

So?

Well, we are going to see a massive uptick in closed sales in the 4th quarter, I predict more than Winter Garden has ever had. What else is interesting about new home closings? New homes sell for more than resales typically. Let us also take into account these new home buyers have locked their rates in already and are unaffected by the recent uptick to 5%.

RTR prediction is that the 4th quarter will be amazing, Winter Garden will remain at double-digit appreciation on all levels.

So everything is wonderful and great…. but what is concerning is the uptick on average days on the market. You will get an uptick when you pass the summer buying months but this year is a little different, a lot of homes are on the market that is overpriced, swinging for the fences with newer less experienced Realtors. The price reductions every week are greater than have been noticed in recent years. This is concerning and will be monitored closely but felt compelled to mention it. Confident this trend will continue into the 4th quarter as the holiday season comes into full swing and rates creep above 5%.